The avalanche that hit math is coming for AI development

The author argues that AI is already accelerating frontier AI research—citing METR's finding that Anthropic's progress rate has doubled in a year, largely due to AI-assisted R&D—and that rapid gains in verifiable domains like mathematics suggest AIs could match the best human AI researchers within a couple of years, with a median estimate of 2028. He contends that AI research resembles the well-scoped, verifiable problems AIs excel at, so automating it could compress years of algorithmic progress into one, yielding either a "spark" or a "software-only singularity."