Forecasting space weather risks on power grids

A Microsoft Research intern developed a machine learning pipeline that uses forecast-time solar-wind data, AE and Dst index forecasts, local geology and grid data to produce location-specific geomagnetically induced current risk estimates for 66,935 substations in the continental United States, 30 to 60 minutes ahead. During the 2020-2026 evaluation period the pipeline detected nearly 80% of major space-weather events, with detection rates of 76.5% for events ≥10 nT/min, 81.2% for ≥20 nT/min and 64.1% for ≥50 nT/min, and it produced estimates for all substations in about 333 milliseconds. The authors note that further validation with utilities and operational data would be needed before use in grid operations.